Issues of Growth & Development Series

Column #45 —Comparison of Residential Building January-February 2000 and 2005

This is a comparison of residential building in the first two months of 2000 and 2005 understand to help understand happened to the residential new home construction market over these five years. Figures for estimated cost of construction are nowhere near the real amount; buyers of new homes often change the size of the new home from the model. In addition, the neither City nor County require accurate estimated construction costs, many production builders submit the same estimated cost over these years.

Building in 2000

Table 1 shows the number of residential permits issued (not yet approved by all agencies) for January-February 2000. It includes prices for condominiums, singe family homes, and townhomes for this period. There are 80 residential units in this list, the estimated construction cost range is $20,000-$664,700 and 18 owner-applicants submitted as general contractors (e.g. they will subcontract the construction of their new home).

Table 1. Frederick County Homebuilders (January-February 2000)

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Building 2005

Table 2 shows the number of residential permits issued (but not yet approved by all agencies) for January-February 2005. This includes prices for condominiums, singe family homes, and townhomes for this period. There are 80 residential units in this list, the estimated construction cost is $78,000-$1,800,000 and nine owner-applicants submitted as general contractors.

Table 2. Frederick County Homebuilders (January-February 2005)

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Census Reports for January-February 2005

Table 3 represents what the U.S. census says were permitted in January and February 2005. These figures (both units and estimated costs of construction) should match, they don’t!

Table 3. U.S. Census Report for Frederick County (January-February 2005)

Note. E Cost is a rough estimate of what a builder believes the home will cost on submission of permit; the final value is higher. Therefore, the Estimated Construction Cost should not be used for Census statistics and should be only used as an approximation for new homes. The only correct cost figure that should be used is the final new home sale price!

Comparison of January-February Construction in 2000 and 2005

There are significant changes from five years ago. During this two-month period in 2000 and 2005 there were 272 and 212 permits issued, respectively. Responding to the market, there have been more condominiums and townhomes built — 66 and 99, respectively.

Table 4. Frederick County Residential Construction (January-February 2000 + 2005)

Sources. Table 3 from U.S. Census website (http://censtats.census.gov/cgibin/bldgprmt/bldgdisp.pl) & table 4 is data collected from City/County databases collected by Strategic Marketing Group.

Summary

For over 15 years, I have been collecting data from the City and the County Permits Departments. We recognize these are initial permits that have not been approved by all county agencies, however they represent a good estimate of projected construction.

We have learned that some of these applications are not built on the property immediately, often because the final sale could be a different style home. The builder may then resubmit the application later. The old permit is then cancelled and another application is submitted.

According to the County Permits office, a representative of the U.S. Census collects monthly permits for that report. Table 3 was taken directly from the Census website for January and February 2005 — 79 units for January 2005 and 69 for February 2005 = 148. Our data shows 99 and 113 total units (condominiums, single family, and townhomes) = 212 permit applications.

To try to confirm our database, we went to the County website and according to the source [http://www.co.frederick.md.us/planning/Demo graphics/myweb/PermitReport.htm]. This report (January 2005 only) indicates there were only 64 single family and 20 townhomes permitted = 84 permits issued. Data collected from the City and County Permit offices for January 2005 (see table 4) is 99 permit applications.

I am still puzzled on the correct data — the Census; the City/County permits departments, or Planning + Development News; close, but no match.